Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?

The question asks whether Kerry-Lynne Findlay will win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election. The only relevant article Ground article reports that Findlay resigned as leader of the B.C. Conservative caucus, and that John Rustad has been invited back to the caucus following her resignation. This indicates that Findlay is no longer the party leader and that the party is undergoing internal changes. However, the article does not state that Findlay is leaving the legislature or that she will not run in the by-election. In fact, her resignation as leader could allow her to focus on her constituency and potentially run again. The article does not provide any information about her electoral prospects, the by-election date, or any polling. Given the lack of direct evidence about her candidacy or chances, and the fact that she is a sitting MLA who previously won the seat, it is plausible she could run and win. However, the internal turmoil and leadership change introduce uncertainty. Without more specific information, a moderate probability is appropriate, leaning slightly toward YES because incumbents often have an advantage, but not strongly due to the party upheaval. The article does not mention any other candidates or the by-election schedule, so the resolution criteria's date of September 26, 2026, is not addressed. Thus, the probability is set at 0.65, reflecting a cautious tilt toward YES based on incumbency and lack of contrary evidence, but with significant uncertainty from the party dynamics.