Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

The question asks whether the Fed will implement zero rate hikes in 2026. The articles indicate a strong baseline expectation of no hikes this year, but they also highlight significant upside risks to that view. Reuters Fed reports that most economists in a Reuters poll expect the Fed to hold rates through year-end, with market pricing for a September hike flipping to a near-70% chance of a hold after weak jobs data and cooling inflation. However, the same article notes that due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and oil prices about 25% above pre-war levels, markets still price in one rate increase by end-December. AP article states that 'many' Fed officials think higher rates will be needed if inflation stays high, and the July meeting saw a 9-3 vote to hold, indicating some dissent. Reuters Fed shows that while the median forecast is for a hold for the rest of 2026, a majority of economists describe the likelihood of a hike this year as 'high', and markets are pricing in two rate rises by end-March next year due to a near-25% surge in oil prices. These factors create a meaningful chance of at least one hike, especially if inflation proves sticky or oil prices continue to rise. Given the mixed signals—baseline expectation of no hikes but substantial risk of hikes—the probability of zero hikes is below 0.5 but not extremely low. I set it at 0.3, reflecting a lean toward no hikes but acknowledging the real possibility of a hike driven by inflation or geopolitical pressures.