Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

The question is whether the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) will win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. The articles provided, however, focus on the 2022 election context, not 2026. Article Aljazeera article discusses the 2022 election, noting that national polls had the centre-left opposition bloc (led by the Social Democrats) just a few percentage points ahead of the right-wing group, with a gap that had tightened over the past month. This suggests that in 2022 the Social Democrats were competitive but the race was close. In the 2022 election, the Social Democrats actually won 107 seats, which is above 105. However, the question is about 2026, and no articles provide specific polling or seat projections for that future election. Since the information is outdated and pertains to a previous election cycle, it does not directly inform the 2026 outcome. Without current data on voter intentions, candidate popularity, or political developments leading up to 2026, there is considerable uncertainty. The Social Democrats' 2022 performance (107 seats) is slightly above the threshold, but shifts in public opinion over four years could push them below 105, especially given the tightening trend mentioned in Aljazeera article. Given the lack of contemporary data, I lean slightly towards YES (fewer than 105 seats) as a cautious extrapolation of the tightening trend, but with low confidence, resulting in a probability of 0.6.