Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?

The question asks whether U.S. crude oil reserves in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) will fall to 280 million barrels by September 25, 2026. The resolution criteria specify that the market resolves to 'Yes' if the EIA publishes a weekly SPR stock figure less than or equal to 280 million barrels for any week ending on or before that date. The provided news articles focus on geopolitical and market dynamics—such as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries Guardian UkraineReuters article, Hormuz talks NYT article, and China's role in oil markets Guardian ChinaFT article—but none of them mention the U.S. SPR levels, any SPR drawdown plans, or any policy or event that would cause SPR stocks to fall to 280 million barrels. The SPR has historically been around 300-600 million barrels, and while it has been drawn down in recent years, reaching 280 million would require an unprecedented and sustained drawdown. Without any evidence in the articles of such a dramatic reduction, the probability is extremely low. The articles are essentially off-topic for the specific question, and no reported facts suggest the threshold will be met. Therefore, the probability of a 'Yes' resolution is near zero, but not exactly zero due to the possibility of unforeseen events not covered in the articles.