Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?

The question asks whether Iran will target Jordan via a qualifying military action (air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike) by September 30, 2026. The only relevant article Reuters article describes a past IRGC ballistic missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, which would technically qualify as a surface-to-surface missile strike directed at Jordanian territory. However, that event occurred in the past (the article is dated 2025-06-19, before the market creation date implied by the resolution criteria). The resolution criteria require the action to occur between market creation and September 30, 2026. Since the article describes a historical event, it does not indicate a future attack. No other articles provide evidence of any planned or likely future Iranian strike on Jordan. Iran and Jordan have not been in active conflict, and Jordan has not been a primary target of Iranian military operations in recent years. The IRGC's past attack was a one-off response to U.S. actions, not part of an ongoing campaign against Jordan. Given the lack of any credible reporting or official statements suggesting a future attack, the probability is very low. The 0.02 reflects the remote possibility of an unforeseen escalation, but the evidence base is essentially empty for a future event.