Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be less than 800,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Kansas Senate election will be less than 800,000. Kansas is a mid-sized state; in recent midterm Senate races, total votes have typically ranged from roughly 900,000 to 1.1 million. For example, the 2020 Senate race saw about 1.2 million votes, and even lower-turnout midterms like 2014 saw around 800,000–900,000. The 2026 race is highly competitive, with polling showing a near tie (Marshall 45.4% vs. Hamilton 45.6%) and ratings ranging from 'Lean Republican' to 'Tossup' Ground article. Competitive races tend to increase turnout, not decrease it. The article notes significant outside spending and a 'deteriorating national political environment' for Republicans, which could mobilize both bases NYT article. While a low-turnout scenario is possible, the combination of a competitive race, high spending, and historical turnout patterns makes it more likely that total votes exceed 800,000. However, there is meaningful uncertainty because midterm turnout can be suppressed, and the exact number depends on voter enthusiasm and mobilization. Given the evidence, I estimate a 60% probability that votes exceed 800,000, meaning a 40% chance they are less than 800,000. This is a moderate lean toward 'NO' (votes not less than 800,000), but not a strong call because the margin is thin and turnout could surprise. The resolution criteria also note that if results are not known by March 31, 2027, it resolves to the lowest bracket, but that is unlikely given the election date is November 3, 2026 Ground article.