Will the Student List win less than 30% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

The Student List is actively campaigning across Serbia, holding rallies in multiple cities (Vranje, Novi Pazar, Kovin, Subotica, Vršac, Irig) Ground TwoGround Representati, which suggests a serious organizational effort to gain votes. The list has also announced a platform of reforms in education and culture Ground Student, and received support from over 3,000 members of the academic community Ground Academic, indicating some institutional backing. Al Jazeera describes the Student List as a 'significant challenge' to the ruling SNS party Aljazeera article, implying it could attract a meaningful share of the vote. However, the question asks whether the Student List will win less than 30% of the vote. Given that the ruling SNS party has dominated Serbian elections for years, and the Student List is a new, student-led movement without a long-established voter base, it is unlikely to exceed 30%. Even with strong grassroots campaigning and academic support, breaking the 30% barrier would require a major shift in the electorate. The articles do not provide any polling data or historical precedent suggesting such a high vote share. Therefore, the probability that the Student List wins less than 30% is high, but not certain, as the movement could still surprise if the anti-government sentiment is very strong. I set the probability at 0.75, reflecting a confident but not extreme assessment.