Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be less than 350,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Montana Senate election will be less than 350,000. Montana is a low-population state, and Senate races there typically draw fewer votes than in larger states. However, the presence of a competitive three-way race—with Republican Kurt Alme, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and independent Seth Bodnar—could increase turnout, as multiple candidates energize different bases Post MontanaGround articlePost Montana. The Democratic Party's internal split, with the chair and former Governor Bullock endorsing the independent over the party nominee, suggests a contentious and high-salience race that may drive voters to the polls Post MontanaGround article. Yet, Montana's total population is about 1.1 million, and even high-turnout Senate races in the state have historically seen around 500,000 votes, which is well above 350,000. For example, the 2020 Senate race saw roughly 600,000 votes. Given that this is a midterm (lower turnout than presidential years) but with a hotly contested open seat, turnout could be moderate. The 350,000 threshold is relatively low; even a modest turnout of 50% of eligible voters (about 700,000 eligible) would yield around 350,000 votes. Since the race is competitive and features a notable independent, turnout is likely to exceed that threshold. However, the articles do not provide specific polling or turnout estimates, and the race is still over a year away, so there is uncertainty. The resolution criteria also note that if results are not known by March 31, 2027, it resolves to the lowest bracket, which would be a YES (less than 350,000), but that is a fallback, not a primary scenario. Weighing the state's small population against the competitive nature of the race, I lean slightly toward YES (votes less than 350,000) because Montana's midterm Senate races often see around 300,000–400,000 votes, and the threshold is not far from typical turnout. The articles do not suggest a surge in turnout, and the Democratic split might actually depress Democratic turnout, while Republicans are likely to turn out for a competitive race. Overall, the probability is moderately above 0.5, but not extremely high, given the lack of concrete data and the possibility of higher turnout due to the three-way contest.