Will AfD win fewer than 34 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

The question asks whether the AfD will win fewer than 34 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election. The Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt has 87 seats total (as of the current electoral law), so 34 seats would be about 39% of the seats. Multiple credible news sources report that the AfD is polling above 40% in the state Post article, which would translate to roughly 35 or more seats if the vote share maps to seat share proportionally. The party is described as 'riding high' and 'eyeing a win' in Saxony-Anhalt BBC articleReuters article, and is aiming for a parliamentary majority Economist article. The CDU, the traditional governing party, trails far behind at 23-26% Post article. Given that the AfD is polling well above the threshold needed for 34 seats, and the election is still over a year away but the trend is strongly upward, it is unlikely that the AfD will fall below 34 seats. However, there is some uncertainty because other parties may form a coalition to block the AfD, and the electoral firewall could affect seat allocation Economist article. Still, the polling data and the party's momentum make a result below 34 seats improbable. Therefore, the probability that the AfD wins fewer than 34 seats is low.