Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

The question asks whether the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz will reach or exceed 60 by December 31, 2026. The news articles describe a mix of ongoing attacks, diplomatic talks, and threats, but none provide specific data on current transit call volumes or a clear trend toward normalization. Article 1 reports that Secretary Rubio stated Iran has 'lost complete control' of the Strait, implying disruption rather than normal traffic. Articles 2 and 3 describe attacks on tankers, which would likely reduce shipping activity. Article 4 and 5 mention talks between Iran and Oman, suggesting efforts to de-escalate, but no deal has been finalized. Article 6 reports Iran threatening 46 ships, indicating continued tension. Without any reported transit call numbers or evidence of a sustained increase, the probability of reaching the 60 threshold by end-2026 is low. However, the possibility of a diplomatic resolution or improved security cannot be ruled out, so the probability is not extremely low. The available information points to a moderate NO, with a probability estimate of 0.35.