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The only provided article discusses CDU's Sven Schulze as the state premier and CDU candidate in the upcoming Saxony-Anhalt election, warning against AfD entering government. This indicates CDU is actively contesting the election and currently holds the state premiership, which suggests they are likely to remain in government. However, the article does not provide polling data, coalition scenarios, or any concrete evidence about the post-election government composition. Given that CDU is the incumbent party and a major force in German state politics, they have a strong but not certain chance of being part of the next government. The lack of detailed electoral forecasts or coalition information keeps the probability moderate-high rather than extreme. The resolution criteria require CDU to hold at least one ministerial post in the first government formed after the September 2026 election, which is plausible given their current position but not guaranteed.
Articles in the pack
- DW article — CDU's Saxony-Anhalt candidate warns against AfD taking power