Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?

The question asks whether the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will be cancelled by December 31, 2026. The resolution criteria require a definitive announcement by either party or a consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire has ended, not merely violations. The available articles describe Israeli airstrikes in Gaza that killed senior Hamas figures and other casualties, occurring despite a ceasefire that has been in place for about a year aapnews.aap.com.au articleGround articleAljazeera article. These strikes are described as violations but not as cancellations of the ceasefire. For example, one article notes the strike happened 'despite a ceasefire' aapnews.aap.com.au article, and another says the military called it a 'precise strike' and vowed to continue pursuing October 7 attackers Ground article, which suggests ongoing military action within the ceasefire framework rather than its termination. The articles do not report any announcement by Israel or Hamas that the ceasefire is cancelled, nor a consensus that it is no longer in effect. The strikes, while serious, appear to be limited operations that have not led to a formal end of the ceasefire. Given that the ceasefire has held for about a year despite such incidents, the probability of a formal cancellation by the end of 2026 is moderate but not high. However, the pattern of escalating violations could increase the risk of collapse. Based on the available information, I estimate a 35% chance of cancellation, as the evidence shows ongoing tensions but no definitive move to end the ceasefire.