Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by at least 25%?

The question asks whether the AfD will win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by a margin of at least 25 percentage points. The margin of victory is defined as the absolute difference between the top two parties' percentages of valid second votes. Recent polling from Infratest dimap shows AfD at 41% and CDU at 24%, a gap of 17 percentage points Reuters Germany. This is well below the 25% threshold. While the AfD is leading in polls and has strong momentum in the eastern state Reuters AfDBBC article, the current gap is not large enough. Moreover, the CDU is a major party with a solid base, and other parties could also affect the final margin. The AfD has never entered government due to a cordon sanitaire by other parties Reuters Germany, which may limit its ability to expand its vote share further. The election is still over a year away, and polling can shift, but the current data suggests a margin closer to 15-20% rather than 25% or more. Therefore, the probability of a 25%+ margin is low, though not impossible if the AfD surges further and the CDU collapses. Based on the available evidence, I estimate a 15% chance.