Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?

The question asks whether the Houthis will target Saudi Arabia with a qualifying military action (air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike) by September 30, 2026. The provided articles indicate ongoing Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, including off Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port Reuters article, and that Saudi Arabia is rerouting oil exports under threat NYT Under. However, these actions are maritime and directed at vessels, not at Saudi terrestrial territory or internal waters as required by the resolution criteria. Article 1 discusses a potential new war due to Houthi attacks on ships, but this is speculative and does not confirm a direct strike on Saudi soil. Article 4 is an opinion piece emphasizing Houthi capabilities but provides no specific evidence of a planned or executed strike on Saudi Arabia. The resolution criteria explicitly exclude naval gunfire and artillery fire, and the reported attacks are on ships, not land targets. While the Houthis have the capability and have shown willingness to escalate, there is no current evidence of a qualifying strike on Saudi territory. The timeframe extends to September 2026, allowing for future escalation, but the lack of recent or imminent land-targeting incidents suggests a moderate probability. Given the ongoing maritime conflict and potential for spillover, a probability of 0.35 reflects a cautious NO leaning, as the evidence does not yet support a YES but acknowledges the possibility of future escalation.