Will Mike Derry win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?

The only available article confirms that Mike Derry has secured the United Conservative Party (UCP) nomination for the Calgary-Shaw by-election CBC article. In Alberta provincial politics, the UCP is the incumbent governing party, and Calgary-Shaw has historically been a conservative-leaning riding. However, the article does not provide any polling data, opponent information, or voter sentiment analysis. Without details on the strength of other candidates (e.g., NDP, Liberal, or independent challengers) or broader political trends, the probability cannot be set very high. Given that Derry is the official UCP candidate and the riding's tendency, a moderate YES probability of 0.65 is reasonable, reflecting a likely but not certain victory. The resolution criteria specify a by-election date of September 14, 2026, and the article is from June 2026, so the information is timely CBC article.