Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?

The question asks whether fewer than 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz in a week in late September 2026. The articles describe a severe ongoing crisis: the strait has been 'disrupted and blocked by Tehran' since late February, with traffic having 'plummeted' Aljazeera articlesbs.com.au article. However, the articles also indicate active diplomatic and military efforts to restore navigation: Iran and Oman agreed on a shipping route and mine clearing, Iran is meeting Gulf states to discuss security, and Navy SEALs conducted a secret mine-clearing operation Aljazeera articleGround article. These efforts suggest that by September, some traffic will have resumed, likely well above 20 ships per week. The baseline for such a major waterway is hundreds of transits daily; even a heavily disrupted strait would likely see more than 20 ships in a week, especially with mine clearing and route agreements in place. The articles do not provide specific transit counts, but the context of active restoration and the fact that the blockade is not described as total make it highly unlikely that fewer than 20 ships transit in that week. Therefore, the probability of YES is very low.