Texas's 28th District margin of victory

The question asks whether the Republican Party will win Texas's 28th District by 1 percentage point or more in the 2026 U.S. House election. The district was redrawn to be more Republican-leaning, with Trump winning it by 21 points TIME article. This structural advantage suggests a Republican victory is likely. However, the incumbent Democrat, Henry Cuellar, remains a strong candidate despite his indictment and pardon, and Democrats see an opening due to shifting Latino voter trends TIME articleGround article. Republicans are also struggling in some Texas districts, and the redrawn map may not deliver the expected advantage Post articleGround article. The margin of victory is likely to be close, but given the district's Republican lean and the national environment favoring the GOP in midterms, a Republican win by at least 1 point is more probable than not. The articles do not provide specific polling or margin estimates, but the overall context points to a competitive race with a slight Republican edge. Therefore, the probability is set at 0.65, reflecting a moderate YES leaning.