Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be less than 1,400,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 South Carolina Senate election will be less than 1,400,000. Historical turnout in South Carolina midterm Senate races provides a baseline: in 2014, the Senate race saw about 1.36 million votes; in 2018, about 1.48 million; and in 2022, about 1.47 million. The 1.4 million threshold is near the lower end of recent turnout. The article NYT article notes that the race is now considered 'likely Republican' rather than 'solidly Republican,' which could increase Democratic enthusiasm and turnout, pushing totals above 1.4 million. However, the same article highlights that no Democrat has come within nine points this century, suggesting the race may not be highly competitive statewide, which could suppress turnout relative to a toss-up. Additionally, voter anger over tariffs and the war in Iran NYT article might mobilize some voters, but it is unclear if that will significantly boost overall turnout beyond recent midterm levels. Given that recent midterms have mostly exceeded 1.4 million votes (except 2014), and the race is not a high-intensity contest, the probability that total votes fall below 1.4 million is moderate but slightly tilted toward NO. The lack of specific polling or turnout projections in the article limits precision, so the estimate is cautious, leaning toward the historical pattern of exceeding 1.4 million.