Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

The Democratic nominee is David Crowley, who won a primary upset against Francesca Hong Ground articleTIME article. However, the general election opponent is Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, and the race is in a state that Donald Trump won twice, indicating a challenging environment for Democrats TIME articleNYT article. While Crowley has received a high-profile endorsement from Barack Obama Ground article and Democrats are considering significant financial investments NYT article, the structural disadvantage in a state that leans Republican in recent presidential elections suggests the Democratic candidate is an underdog. The articles do not provide polling or other evidence that Crowley has a clear path to victory, and the race is still over a year away, making the outcome uncertain but leaning toward the Republican. Therefore, the probability of a Democratic win is below 0.5 but not extremely low, given the potential for national Democratic resources and the endorsement boost.