Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?

The question asks whether fewer than 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz in a week (October 5-11, 2026). The articles describe a severe conflict: Iran has struck tankers, requires permission for transit, and threatens to target vessels without clearance aapnews.aap.com.au article. A deal reportedly would allow only 10-15 ships per day Ground article, which alone would yield 70-105 per week—far above 20. However, the context is a war that has impaired the strait, with trade shifting north and only some vessels returning under escort Aljazeera Iran. President Trump rejected Iran’s plan to reopen the strait Aljazeera Oil, and while Qatar-linked LNG traffic is picking up, it is not yet regular Reuters article. The resolution criteria count all transit calls (container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, tanker) reported by IMF Portwatch. Given the conflict, transits are severely disrupted, but even a minimal trickle of a few ships per day (e.g., 2-3) would exceed 20 in a week. The reported 10-15 per day figure Ground article suggests the strait is not completely closed. The most plausible scenario is that some transits occur, likely more than 20, but the uncertainty is high. The probability that fewer than 20 transit is low because even a small number of daily transits (e.g., 3 per day) would yield 21 in a week. The articles do not indicate a complete shutdown; rather, they show selective movement Aljazeera IranReuters article. Therefore, I estimate a low probability, around 0.12, that the count falls below 20.