Will Otzma Yehudit win less than 4.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

The question asks whether Otzma Yehudit will win less than 4.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections. The news articles provided focus on procedural matters—specifically, the Central Elections Committee's rejection of attempts to disqualify Otzma Yehudit from the election Ground JointGround Elections. These articles confirm that the party is legally allowed to run, but they do not provide any polling data, historical vote shares, or analysis of the party's current support. Without such data, it is impossible to make a precise forecast. However, the fact that the party faced disqualification attempts suggests it remains a controversial but viable political entity. In the 2022 elections, Otzma Yehudit ran as part of the Religious Zionism alliance, which won about 10.8% of the vote; Otzma Yehudit's individual share was roughly 4-5% within that alliance. Since then, the party has faced internal splits and declining poll numbers, often polling around 3-4% in 2024-2025 surveys. Given the lack of recent polling in the provided articles, the most reasonable estimate is that Otzma Yehudit's vote share is likely to be below 4.5%, but with significant uncertainty. The articles do not provide enough evidence to make an extreme call, so a moderate probability of 0.65 is assigned, leaning toward YES (less than 4.5%) based on the trend of declining support, but acknowledging the possibility of a rebound or alliance effects.