Will China’s CPI increase by ≤0.2% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?

The question asks whether China's CPI will increase by ≤0.2% over the 12 months ending August 2026. This is a very low inflation threshold, implying near-zero or negative year-on-year inflation. The only relevant article Reuters article reports that as of July 2025, CPI inflation was 0.5% year-on-year, with core CPI at 0.9% and food prices falling 1.5%. This suggests inflation is currently positive but low, and there is no indication of deflation. Given the current level of 0.5%, reaching ≤0.2% would require a significant further slowdown or deflationary shock over the next 13 months. While possible, especially if food prices continue to fall and energy prices remain weak, the baseline expectation is for inflation to remain in a low but positive range, likely above 0.2%. However, the threshold is not extremely far from current levels, and China has experienced periods of very low inflation. The article does not provide any forward-looking guidance, so the probability is moderately above 0.5 but not high. I assign 0.6, reflecting a slight tilt toward YES because the low threshold is plausible given the current disinflationary trend, but it is not a strong call.