Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The question asks whether there will be no Fed rate cuts in 2026. The articles, while not directly addressing 2026, provide strong context about the current monetary policy stance and the factors influencing it. Multiple sources indicate that the Fed is currently in a holding pattern or even considering rate hikes due to persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions. Article Reuters Fed states that most economists expect the Fed to hold rates through the end of the current year, with markets pricing in a possible hike. Article AP article reports that 'many' Fed officials think higher rates will be needed if inflation stays high. Article Reuters Fed confirms that a September rate hike is still on the table, and Article Reuters rates quotes a Fed official saying rates need to rise soon. Article Guardian article highlights that the new Fed chair faces inflation fears, with oil prices surging. This collective evidence suggests a hawkish bias, making rate cuts in the near term unlikely. However, the question is about 2026, which is over a year away. Economic conditions can change significantly in that time. A recession or a sharp drop in inflation could force the Fed to pivot to cuts. The articles do not provide any specific forecasts for 2026, only the current environment. Given the current hawkish stance and the lack of any mention of future cuts, the probability of no cuts in 2026 is moderately high, but not extremely high because the time horizon is long and conditions could shift. Therefore, a probability of 0.35 reflects a leaning toward 'no cuts' but with significant uncertainty.