Quebec General Election: QS Wins a Seat?

The question asks whether Québec solidaire (QS) will win at least one seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election. The provided news articles are extremely thin on relevant information. Article Ground article only describes the start of advance polling and general voter activity, with no mention of any party's prospects, polling, or seat projections. Article Aljazeera article is an opinion piece about a forestry bill and the CAQ government's policies, and it does not discuss QS or the election at all. Neither article provides any evidence about QS's expected performance, candidate strength, or historical seat count. However, QS is an established provincial party that has held seats in the National Assembly in recent elections (e.g., it won 11 seats in 2022 and has had representation since 2012). Given that the party is a recognized political force with existing incumbents and a base of support, it is highly likely to retain at least one seat in a general election, barring a complete collapse. The resolution criteria are clear that the market resolves based on official results, and there is no indication of any extraordinary event that would eliminate QS entirely. Therefore, despite the lack of direct evidence in the articles, the baseline probability of QS winning at least one seat is high, around 0.85. The articles do not contradict this, and the absence of negative news about QS supports a favorable assessment. I would not go higher because the articles provide no confirmation of QS's current standing, and unforeseen electoral swings are possible, but the party's institutional presence makes a zero-seat outcome very unlikely.