Will RNI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?

The question asks whether the RNI (Rassemblement National des Indépendants) will finish third in seat count in the 2026 Moroccan legislative elections. The only directly relevant article Ground article mentions that the result 'seems sung in advance' and that doubt lies between the current governing party and the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), with no mention of RNI as a strong contender for third place. The article notes RNI's 'calculated silence' on territorial issues, but does not provide any polling data, seat projections, or coalition information that would indicate RNI is likely to secure the third-most seats. Without any concrete evidence of RNI's current standing, coalition arrangements, or electoral trends, the available information is thin and does not support a high probability. Given the lack of substantive reporting on RNI's prospects, a moderate NO leaning is appropriate, as the article suggests the competition is primarily between two other parties, making RNI's third-place finish uncertain. The resolution criteria also allow for ties and coalition complexities, but no data is provided to assess these factors. Therefore, the probability is set below 0.45, reflecting a cautious NO assessment based on the limited and off-topic coverage.