Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be less than 3,600,000?

The question asks whether total votes in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election will be less than 3,600,000. The articles describe the 2022 Georgia primary and general election dynamics, not the 2026 midterm. However, they provide context on Georgia's electorate and competitiveness. In 2022, Georgia saw high turnout in the Senate race (over 3.9 million votes in the general election). The 2026 midterm is expected to be competitive, with Democrats likely favored (article 3 notes the race is 'likely Democratic' and Republicans are shifting focus away). Competitive Senate races in Georgia typically draw high turnout, often exceeding 3.6 million. The articles do not provide specific 2026 turnout projections, but historical patterns and the state's growing population suggest turnout could be high. The resolution criteria require votes to be less than 3.6 million for YES. Given the competitiveness and historical turnout, it is more likely than not that turnout will exceed 3.6 million, making NO more probable. However, midterm turnout can be lower than presidential years, and the articles do not directly address 2026. Thus, I assign a moderate probability of YES (turnout below 3.6 million) at 0.35, meaning NO is more likely at 0.65. The evidence is thin, so I avoid extreme values.