Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%?

The question is about voter turnout in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election being less than 82%. The provided news article Aljazeera article discusses the 2022 Swedish general election, noting it was a 'knife-edge' election and that a Novus survey showed 50.3% support for a left-wing coalition versus 47.9% for the right-wing government. While voter turnout is not directly reported, the article suggests a highly competitive and polarized political environment, which historically can increase voter engagement. However, without specific turnout figures or trends for 2026, the evidence is too thin to confidently predict a turnout below 82%. Swedish voter turnout in recent decades has been high (often above 80%), but there is no data in the article to support a significant decline. Given the lack of direct evidence on turnout rates, and the fact that the question involves a future event with no strong indicators from the source, I lean toward a NO (turnout >= 82%) but with modest confidence. The article does not mention turnout statistics, predictions, or factors clearly affecting turnout like electoral reforms or demographic shifts. Therefore, the probability of YES is below 0.55 but above 0.01, as the broad political context could still lead to slightly lower turnout. I set the probability at 0.35, reflecting a moderate tendency toward higher turnout based on historical norms and lack of contrary evidence.