Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2030 be above 0.0%?

The question asks whether the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U for December 2030 will be above 0.0%. This is an extremely low bar: any positive inflation, no matter how small, would resolve to Yes. Historical data and current trends strongly suggest that deflation (negative CPI change) is very rare in modern economies, especially over a 12-month horizon. The provided news articles, while not directly about U.S. CPI in 2030, consistently report positive inflation rates across multiple countries: Peru's annual inflation is 4.17% Ground article, Australia faces rising CPI aapnews.aap.com.au article, UK inflation hit a four-month high due to energy bills BBC article, and Canadian inflation accelerated Reuters article. Even where inflation has eased, it remains positive and elevated 7news.com.au article. These reports indicate that global inflationary pressures persist, making it highly unlikely that the U.S. would experience a sustained 12-month deflationary period by December 2030. The resolution criteria require only that the change be above 0.0%, not any specific threshold. Given the structural factors (monetary policy, energy costs, supply chains) and the absence of any credible deflationary scenario in the articles, the probability of a positive 12-month CPI change is near certain. Therefore, the probability is estimated at 0.99.