Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be less than 1,200,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Alabama Senate election will be less than 1,200,000. The only directly relevant article NYT article describes a competitive race: former Senator Doug Jones is challenging Governor Tommy Tuberville, and Representative Shomari Figures is also campaigning in a redrawn district. The article notes that turnout in Greene County's May primary was 'strikingly high' (about 79% Black population), suggesting energized Black voters due to the Voting Rights Act ruling. High-profile races with strong mobilization efforts typically drive turnout above 1.2 million in Alabama (e.g., 2017 special election had ~1.3 million votes; 2020 general had ~2.2 million). However, midterm turnout is lower than presidential years, and the redrawn district may suppress some Democratic enthusiasm. The article does not provide specific vote total projections, but the reported high primary turnout and competitive dynamics suggest a moderate-to-high turnout scenario. Given that Alabama's population is about 5 million, a 1.2 million threshold is plausible but not certain. The lack of other articles limits precision, so I lean slightly toward YES (less than 1.2 million) but not strongly, as midterm turnout can vary. The resolution criteria also note that if results are not known by March 2027, it resolves to the lowest bracket, but that is a secondary consideration. Overall, the evidence points to a competitive race that could push turnout near or above 1.2 million, but historical midterm patterns and the redrawn district make it more likely to fall just below that threshold.