Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

The question asks whether Dan Sullivan will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026. The resolution criteria specify that the market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 midterm election, with a deadline of July 31, 2027. The news articles provide relevant context: Article 1 confirms that incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola have advanced to the general election, setting up a key contest. Peltola is a strong candidate, having won a special election for the House in 2022 and nearly winning re-election in 2024, losing by fewer than three percentage points. This suggests a competitive race. Article 2 notes that Sullivan faces a primary challenge from another candidate with the same name, but the incumbent is endorsed by Trump and is seeking a third term, indicating he is the favorite in the primary. However, the general election is likely to be close given Peltola's previous performance. The other articles (3-6) are about a different person (Cavan Sullivan, a soccer player) and are irrelevant to the Senate race. Based on the available information, Sullivan has the advantage of incumbency and a strong Republican lean in Alaska, but Peltola's narrow loss in 2024 shows she is a formidable opponent. Given the competitive nature, I estimate a 75% probability that Sullivan wins, as incumbents generally have an edge, but the race is not a sure thing.