Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be less than 1,200,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Iowa Senate election will be less than 1,200,000. Iowa is a competitive open Senate race, now rated a 'Toss Up' by Cook Political Report Post article. Competitive races tend to increase turnout, but Iowa's population and historical turnout suggest the total vote could be around 1.2 million. In 2020, Iowa Senate race had about 1.7 million votes, but that was a presidential year. Midterm turnout is lower. In 2018, Iowa Senate race had about 1.3 million votes. Given the race is competitive, turnout might be higher than typical midterms, but still likely below 1.2 million? Actually, 2018 had 1.3 million, so 2026 could be similar. However, the article does not provide vote totals or turnout projections. The resolution criteria are clear, but the news article is the only source and it does not contain specific vote count information. Therefore, the evidence is thin. Based on historical patterns, midterm Senate races in Iowa have ranged from about 1.1 to 1.3 million votes. The question asks if it will be less than 1.2 million. Given the competitiveness, turnout might be higher, but it's uncertain. I lean slightly toward YES because midterm turnout is typically lower than presidential, and 1.2 million is a plausible threshold. However, the article does not provide direct evidence, so I stay near 0.5, slightly above due to historical midterm turnout being below 1.2 million in some years. For example, 2014 had about 1.1 million. But 2018 had 1.3 million. The race being a toss-up could increase turnout. I'll set probability at 0.55, a slight lean toward YES, but not strong.