Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?

The only relevant article discusses Iran threatening neighboring countries with retaliation if they enforce US sanctions on Iranian airlines, specifically warning that airports in countries stopping Iranian flights 'cannot function' Aljazeera article. This is a verbal threat, not an executed military action. The resolution criteria explicitly exclude 'any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.' The article does not report any actual air strikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes by Iran against an Arab country. No other articles provide evidence of a qualifying military action. Given the lack of any reported strikes and the early stage of the prediction window (through September 2026), the probability of a qualifying event occurring is very low, though not zero due to the possibility of future escalation.