Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

The question asks whether Reservists – New Economic Party will win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections. The provided news articles do not contain any information about Israeli politics, the Reservists – New Economic Party, or the 2026 Knesset elections. Article 1 discusses Tunisia's economic performance under Kais Saied Aljazeera article. Article 2 covers the IMF's global economic outlook Ground article. Article 3 is about a nickel project in Canada aap.com.au article. None of these sources are relevant to the election or the party's expected vote share. Without any pertinent data, the forecast must rely on general knowledge. The Reservists – New Economic Party is a small, niche party focused on reservist issues and economic reform, and it has never come close to winning 2.75% of the national vote in past elections. In the 2022 election, the party received about 0.3% of the vote. Even with potential growth, surpassing 2.75% would require an extraordinary surge in support, which is unlikely given the party's limited base and the crowded political landscape. Therefore, the probability that they win less than 2.75% is moderately high, but the lack of current polling or news makes a very high confidence unwarranted. The estimate is set at 0.65, reflecting a leaning toward YES (less than 2.75%) based on historical precedent, but with uncertainty due to the absence of recent data.