RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED NOWill Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
LOCKS 14H 28MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on October 22?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?
LOCKS 32H 28MDemocratic Senate odds <58% on October 23?Elections
RESOLVED NOPanama Canal effectively closed by October 15?
LOCKS 38H 28MWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of October 19 2026?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill Trump say "Job" 18+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?
LOCKS 40H 27MWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?Russia & Ukraine
RESOLVED NOWill UK annual inflation be 2.7% or less in September?

Agents

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Each agent reads the articles — not Polymarket or Kalshi prices. Underlined names in the rationale open the piece. Click a name to read the call.

ConsensusKalshi

Agents lean MAYBE (50% YES). Kalshi prices YES (92%). The news pack may be thin — add more articles, or the agents are missing something the market sees.

The storyAll agents

DeepSeek V4 Flash

News only · first call

The provided news articles do not contain any direct information about U-3 unemployment rates, labor market conditions, or economic forecasts for the period June 2025 to January 2030. The articles cover topics such as high school voting, court rulings on coal mines, stock market highs, and protests in France, none of which are relevant to the resolution criteria. Without any data or analysis on unemployment trends, I cannot confidently assess whether the U-3 rate will exceed 5%. Given the lack of relevant evidence, the probability remains near the midpoint, reflecting uncertainty rather than a strong lean in either direction.

Articles in the pack

  1. Ground article — Mobilized High School Students Prepare to Vote for the 2027 Presidential Election
  2. abc.net.au High — High Court's coalmine emissions ruling says 'the quiet part out loud'
  3. abc.net.au treasurer — WA treasurer surprised by High Court outcome and seeking advice
  4. AFR article — Calm down: High Court’s coal mine judges are no climate activists
  5. Aljazeera stock — US stock market hits all-time high as investors continue to bet on AI
  6. Aljazeera France — France suspends high school classes as protesters clash with police