Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026?

The news articles provide clear and consistent evidence that Iran has already conducted qualifying military actions against Kuwait before the resolution date of September 15, 2026. Article 1 reports that Kuwait air defenses responded to 'hostile Iranian missile, drone attacks' and that Iran fired at Kuwait as part of retaliation for U.S. bombardments, with the Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense confirming interception of missiles and drones on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Article 2, from AP News, explicitly states that 'Iran fired at Kuwait' and that 'Kuwait's Ministry of Defense reported that air defenses intercepted missiles and drones on Thursday, September 3, 2026,' with the attack confirmed by both Iranian and Kuwaiti sources, satisfying the attribution requirement that the action be claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory. Article 4 adds that 'Iran hit a Kuwaiti oil refinery,' which is a direct strike on Kuwaiti terrestrial territory, qualifying as a surface-to-surface missile or air strike. Article 5 notes that Iran targeted U.S. military sites in Kuwait, which are within Kuwait's territory, and Article 6 confirms that 'Kuwait came under fire' from Iranian strikes. These actions involve missiles and drones, which are explicitly listed as qualifying military actions (surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and cruise or ballistic missiles; air strikes include air-launched drones). The resolution criteria specify that interception before impact does not disqualify the action, so even if some munitions were intercepted, the strikes still count. The attacks are directed at Kuwait's terrestrial territory, including oil refineries and U.S. bases, and are explicitly attributed to Iran, not proxy forces. Given that multiple credible sources (AP News, Time, AAP) confirm these events occurred on September 3, 2026, well before the September 15, 2026 deadline, the probability that Iran will target Kuwait by that date is virtually certain.