Will CDU win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

The question asks whether the CDU will win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state election. The CDU currently holds 29 seats in the 159-seat Abgeordnetenhaus (from the 2023 election). The news articles do not provide any polling data or seat projections for 2026. Article Reuters article discusses a national CDU policy proposal on social media bans for minors, which is unrelated to Berlin state election prospects. Article FT article describes a local Berlin campaign to restrict car traffic, which the CDU opposes; this suggests the CDU is actively engaging in a salient local issue that could mobilize its base. Without any evidence of a dramatic decline in CDU support, and given that the party currently holds 29 seats, winning fewer than 25 would require a loss of at least 5 seats. There is no information in the provided articles indicating such a drop. Therefore, the probability of the CDU winning fewer than 25 seats is low, but not negligible, as unforeseen political shifts could occur before September 2026.