Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

The question asks whether the Texas 2026 Senate race will be within 1% margin of victory. The articles provide some evidence of competitiveness: the Cook Political Report shifted the race from 'Lean Republican' to 'Toss Up' citing a statistical tie Post Cook, and the race is described as 'closely watched' AP article. However, these are early indicators, not definitive. The race is between Ken Paxton (Republican) and James Talarico (Democrat), with Paxton having Trump's backing Guardian article and a strong Republican lean in Texas historically. The articles focus on campaign strategy (depositions Post TexasAP article) and policy issues (data centers Guardian articlePost KenPost Texas), but none provide actual polling margins or historical precedent for a 1% outcome. Texas has not had a Senate race within 1% in recent decades, and while the 'Toss Up' rating suggests competitiveness, it does not imply a near-tie outcome. The resolution is over a year away, and many factors could change. Given the lack of concrete evidence for a sub-1% margin and the structural Republican advantage in Texas, I estimate a lower probability, but not extremely low because the race is genuinely competitive per the Cook shift Post Cook. Thus, I set the probability at 0.35, leaning toward 'No' but acknowledging the possibility of a very close race.