Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?

The question asks whether Russia will capture any part of Sloviansk by December 31, 2026. The news articles provide context on the ongoing conflict but do not indicate that Sloviansk has been captured or is on the verge of capture. Article Reuters Latvia mentions the destruction of a Latvian consulate in Sloviansk, which suggests the city is under attack but not necessarily captured. Article Reuters Russian reports a Russian air strike killing four people, indicating active hostilities but no territorial gain. Article Reuters Ukraine describes an attack on a power station, again showing damage but not control. Article BBC article discusses a Russian troop build-up threatening the city, which is a precursor to potential capture but not a current event. Article Guardian article mentions children being ordered to leave a key Ukrainian stronghold as Russians advance, which could refer to Sloviansk or nearby areas, but it does not confirm capture. Given the timeline to December 2026, there is significant uncertainty. The articles suggest Russia is making advances in the Donbas region, but Sloviansk has been a heavily fortified Ukrainian stronghold for years. The resolution criteria require persistent shading on the ISW map, which is a high bar. While the trend of Russian advances is concerning, the evidence does not strongly support a 'Yes' outcome. The probability is below 0.5 but not extremely low, as the conflict dynamics could shift. I estimate 0.35, reflecting a moderate but not dominant chance of capture.