Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election by 12% or more?

The question asks whether the Republican candidate will win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election by 12% or more. Current polling and historical context make such a large margin highly unlikely. Article 1 shows a tight race: an InsiderAdvantage poll gives Republican Rick Jackson only a 49% to 47% lead over Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, a margin of just 2 points, well below 12%. Article 2 confirms that poll aggregators show Jackson leading by about 2 points as of mid-October, and notes that the race is competitive. Article 3 provides the Republican primary results, where Jackson won with 52.64% of the vote, a margin of about 5.3% over his primary opponent, but that is an intra-party contest, not the general election. Georgia has become a swing state in recent cycles; the 2018 gubernatorial race was decided by 1.4 points, and the 2020 presidential race by 0.2 points. No article suggests a landslide. The only way a 12% margin could occur is if the race dramatically shifts, but current evidence points to a close contest. Therefore, the probability is very low.