Will government spending decrease by 1 before 2028?

The question asks whether U.S. federal government spending (FGEXPND) will decrease by at least $1 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028. The news articles focus on France's fiscal situation, not U.S. spending. Article FT IMF discusses IMF urging France to reduce its deficit, and Article FT France covers French political dynamics and bond yields. Neither article provides any data or analysis about U.S. government spending trends, budget proposals, or economic forecasts relevant to the resolution criteria. Without any direct evidence about U.S. spending, the probability must be based on general knowledge. Historically, U.S. federal spending tends to increase over time due to entitlement programs, defense, and interest payments, making a nominal decrease of $1 billion unlikely. However, there is a small chance of a temporary dip due to a government shutdown or a major budget deal. Given the lack of supporting articles and the typical upward trend, the probability is assessed as low but not negligible.