Iran Nuke before 2027?

The articles describe an ongoing US-Iran war as of April-May 2025, with gasoline price spikes and Senate votes on war powers. They mention Republicans citing 'Iran's nuclear capabilities' as a justification for the conflict, but neither article provides any confirmation that Iran actually possesses a nuclear weapon. The resolution requires credible official confirmation by December 31, 2026. The war context increases the chance that Iran might develop or reveal a weapon, but the articles do not report any such development, only that the nuclear issue is a stated concern. Without direct evidence of weapon possession, and with the timeline extending to end-2026, the probability is below 0.5 but not extremely low because the war could escalate or lead to a nuclear breakout. The lack of any specific report of a weapon makes a 'Yes' less likely than a 'No', but the thinness of the evidence keeps it in the MAYBE-to-NO range, so I set it at 0.35.