Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?

The question asks whether at least 10 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by September 30, 2026, based on IMF Portwatch finalized daily data. The news articles describe a current near-total closure: traffic has fallen from about 100 vessels a day to five, with some days showing zero transits Reuters ShippingGuardian article. This makes the threshold of 10 ships per day far above the current level, so a quick return to normal traffic is unlikely. However, the articles also indicate active diplomatic efforts: Iran and Oman are holding talks on managing the strait AP article, and the FT reports they are 'edging towards a deal' FT article. Iran's top security official has set conditions for reopening, including sanctions relief and an end to port blockades Reuters Iran. These conditions are not met now, but the timeframe extends to September 2026, which is over a year away. Given the strategic importance of the strait for global oil and gas flows, and the reported 47% drop in Gulf crude exports Guardian article, there is strong economic pressure to reopen. The probability of at least one day with 10 or more transits by that date is substantial, but not certain, because the closure could persist if U.S.-Iran tensions remain unresolved. The articles do not provide any specific data from IMF Portwatch, so I rely on the reported trend and diplomatic signals. I set the probability at 0.62, reflecting a moderate lean toward YES due to the long horizon and active negotiations, but acknowledging the current blockade and unresolved conditions.