Will the total vote count for all participants in Illinois Senate General Election be above 3500000?

The question asks whether the total vote count in the Illinois Senate General Election will exceed 3.5 million. Illinois is a large state with a population of about 12.5 million, and Senate elections typically draw high turnout. In the 2020 presidential election, Illinois had about 6 million votes cast; Senate races in non-presidential years often see lower turnout, but the 2022 Senate race (Duckworth vs. Salvi) had roughly 4.2 million votes. The 2026 election is a midterm, but the seat is open and highly competitive within the Democratic primary, which could boost interest. Article NYT article notes that the seat is considered safely Democratic, which might reduce some voter enthusiasm, but the open-seat nature and the high-profile candidates (Lt. Gov. Stratton vs. former GOP chair Tracy) could still drive turnout. There is no specific polling or turnout data in the articles, but historical precedent suggests Illinois Senate races often exceed 3.5 million votes. However, midterm turnout can be lower than presidential years, and the 'safe' rating might depress Republican turnout. Given the lack of direct evidence and the moderate uncertainty, a probability of 0.65 reflects a leaning toward YES but not a strong conviction.