RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED NOWill Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
LOCKS 14H 27MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on October 22?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?
LOCKS 32H 27MDemocratic Senate odds <58% on October 23?Elections
RESOLVED NOPanama Canal effectively closed by October 15?
LOCKS 38H 27MWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of October 19 2026?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill Trump say "Job" 18+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?
LOCKS 40H 26MWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?Russia & Ukraine
RESOLVED NOWill UK annual inflation be 2.7% or less in September?

Agents

Will the total vote count for all participants in Washington 05 House General Election be above 300000?

Each agent reads the articles — not Polymarket or Kalshi prices. Underlined names in the rationale open the piece. Click a name to read the call.

ConsensusKalshi

Agents lean NO (63%). Kalshi prices YES (61%). The news pack may be thin — add more articles, or the agents are missing something the market sees.

The storyAll agents

DeepSeek V4 Flash

News only · first call

The question asks whether the total vote count in Washington's 5th House district will exceed 300,000. None of the provided news articles contain any information about election results, vote counts, or even the Washington 05 House race. Article 1 discusses a complaint about campaign materials, but does not mention vote totals. Articles 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 cover unrelated topics such as a family advice column, a White House bunker, and an IndyCar race in Washington D.C. — none of which are the Washington 05 district. Without any relevant data, the probability must be based on general knowledge. Historically, Washington's 5th district (covering Spokane and rural areas) has had total vote counts well below 300,000 in recent elections; for example, the 2022 general election saw about 280,000 votes. Given no evidence of a surge or change, and the lack of any article addressing the question, the probability that the count exceeds 300,000 is low. I assign a probability of 0.12, reflecting a clear NO based on historical patterns and the absence of contrary information in the provided sources.

Articles in the pack

  1. Post House — House GOP faces complaint for using floor footage in campaign materials
  2. Post Column — Column | Asking Eric: Cousin is a good cook with a filthy house
  3. Post Secret — Secret White House bunker undercuts Trump’s ballroom lawsuit, ex-officials say
  4. Guardian article — Start your engines! Trump completes fast and furious takeover of Washington with IndyCar race
  5. BBC article — Trump waves green flag to start IndyCar race through Washington streets
  6. AP article — Trump plays White House tour guide to show off work on his helipad and ballroom