Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?

The question asks whether fewer than 170 ships will transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from September 7 to September 13, 2026. The resolution criteria rely on IMF Portwatch data for transit calls of specific ship types. The provided news articles offer recent traffic figures for the strait, which can inform a baseline estimate. Article 3 reports that on July 28, 39 commodity ships transited, with 20 entering and 17 exiting, and notes a month's peak of 46 vessels on July 14 Reuters Ships. Article 6 states that on July 27, 28 vessels passed through, a four-day high, and that traffic was below the July 14 peak of 46 Reuters Bab. These figures suggest daily transit counts in the range of 28–46 during late July. Extrapolating to a seven-day period, a daily average of 28 would yield 196 transits, while an average of 46 would yield 322. However, the articles also indicate that traffic has been volatile due to geopolitical tensions, with mentions of US-Iran negotiations and potential military action Reuters Bab. The question's threshold of 170 is relatively low compared to the observed daily rates; for example, 170 over seven days implies an average of about 24.3 ships per day, which is below the reported daily counts of 28–46. Given that traffic has recently been at or above 28 per day, it seems plausible that the weekly total could exceed 170. However, the articles do not provide data for the exact period in question (September 7–13), and traffic could decline due to renewed conflict or other factors. The uncertainty is moderate, but the recent data points toward a higher likelihood of exceeding 170, making a YES (fewer than 170) less likely. Therefore, the probability that fewer than 170 ships transit is estimated at 0.65, reflecting a cautious tilt toward NO (i.e., more than 170) but with significant uncertainty due to the lack of direct September data and potential geopolitical shifts.