Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by September 30?

The only directly relevant article Reuters article reports that President Trump stated oil from a recently struck deal with Venezuela will be used to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and that the 'topping out' process will begin shortly. This is a strong signal of intent and a concrete plan, but the resolution criteria explicitly require actual deposit of Venezuelan oil into an SPR facility by September 30, 2026, not just announcements or plans. The article does not confirm any physical deposit has occurred, only that the process is about to begin. Given the explicit presidential commitment and the short timeline, there is a reasonable chance the deposit occurs, but the lack of confirmed receipt and the possibility of logistical or political delays keep the probability from being very high. The article also notes the SPR is at a 44-year low, which creates urgency, but urgency alone does not guarantee execution within the deadline. Therefore, I estimate a 60% chance of a qualifying deposit by the deadline, leaning toward yes but with meaningful uncertainty.