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The only provided article indicates that New Democracy (ND) is currently well ahead of its nearest rival in opinion polls, with Prime Minister Mitsotakis expressing optimism about gaining a governing majority in next year's elections Ground article. However, the same article notes that ND's current polling is around 30%, which is not strong enough to govern alone, and no other party has shown willingness to form a coalition with ND Ground article. Since the resolution criteria focus on winning the most seats (not necessarily a majority), ND's consistent lead in polls suggests it is the most likely party to win the most seats, but the thin evidence and the possibility of coalition dynamics or shifts in voter sentiment over the long period until the election (before July 2027) introduce significant uncertainty. The article does not provide detailed seat projections or comparative strength of other parties, so I cannot confidently assign a very high probability. Given the reported polling lead, a probability slightly above 0.5 is warranted, but not extreme, as the pack is thin and the timeline is long.
Articles in the pack
- Ground article — Mitsotakis on the 52nd Anniversary of New Democracy: Greece Is an Example to Follow, We Will Not Go Back