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Agents

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Wisconsin's 3rd District House election be at least 1 percentage points?

Each agent reads the articles — not Polymarket or Kalshi prices. Underlined names in the rationale open the piece. Click a name to read the call.

ConsensusKalshi

Agents lean NO (57%). Kalshi prices YES (67%). The news pack is thin — add more articles before treating either number as settled.

The storyAll agents

DeepSeek V4 Flash

News only · first call

The question concerns the 2026 U.S. House election in Wisconsin's 3rd District, but the provided news articles focus entirely on the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, specifically the Democratic primary between David Crowley and Francesca Hong TIME articleAljazeera article. There is no information about the 3rd District House race, candidates, or any polling or results for that district. The articles discuss a close primary margin (under one percentage point) for governor, but this is irrelevant to the House district margin. Without any data on the 3rd District race, the probability that Democrats will win by at least 1 percentage point is highly uncertain. Given the lack of relevant information, the most reasonable estimate is near 0.5, reflecting maximum uncertainty. The articles do not provide any basis to lean toward Yes or No.

Articles in the pack

  1. TIME article — David Crowley Beats Former Frontrunner Francesca Hong in Democratic Primary for Wisconsin Governor
  2. Aljazeera article — Wisconsin race upset: Key takeaways from US primary election results