Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?

The question asks about the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls for Bab el-Mandeb on September 30, 2026, as reported by IMF Portwatch. The provided articles are from Reuters and discuss shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, but they do not contain specific numerical data for Bab el-Mandeb transit counts, nor do they reference IMF Portwatch data for that strait. Article Reuters Ships mentions that Bab el-Mandeb transits were at their highest in a week, and article Reuters Bab notes a rise in shipping amid hopes of resolution in the US-Iran war, but neither provides the actual number of transits or a forecast for September 2026. The articles are dated before the resolution date and do not offer a clear baseline or trend that would allow a confident prediction. Given the lack of specific data and the distant resolution date, the probability of fewer than 25 average daily transits is uncertain. The threshold of 25 is plausible given historical disruptions, but without concrete figures, I cannot confidently lean either way. Therefore, I assign a probability near 0.5, reflecting the insufficient information.