Will Otzma win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

The question asks whether Otzma Yehudit will win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections. The news articles provide procedural updates but do not contain polling data or seat projections. Article Ground Elections reports that the Central Elections Committee rejected a bid to disqualify Otzma Yehudit, allowing the party to run. Article Ground Joint notes that petitions to the High Court seek to overturn that decision, but the Attorney-General opposed disqualification, suggesting the party is likely to remain on the ballot. Without any polling or electoral trend information, the base rate for a far-right party like Otzma Yehudit winning fewer than 4 seats is moderately high, as such parties often struggle to cross the threshold or win only a few seats. However, the party won 6 seats in 2022, so a drop below 4 is plausible but not certain. Given the lack of direct evidence on current support, a probability of 0.65 reflects a cautious tilt toward YES, as the party's recent performance and potential fragmentation could reduce its seat count, but the absence of polls prevents a stronger call.